POPULATION and housing licence issues have been aired, but only to a few people. An audience which fluctuated between 12 and 15 attended a public presentation on Friday evening.
They were warned that if a net inward migration of 200 were not allowed, social security payments and taxes would have to rise horrendously.
Earlier, deputies had their chance to hear about the content of two States reports that will be debated at the end of this month.
Chief Minister Mike Torode chaired the meetings. He said the number of people attending the public one had been disappointing.
‘If we’re going to maintain the levels of social services, pensions we now have without horrendously hitting taxes, we’re going to gave to keep the number in employment at a level comparable with now, but our natural trend is for a decreasing population,’ he said.
He added that Guernsey was defying world trends with a birth rate of 1.27 people, as opposed to just under two around the globe.
‘We hit on a figure of 200 that accounts for locals returning from university and further education and those employed elsewhere gaining experience and coming back. It also includes their families and an element of newcomers to the island.’
If the population was not kept at the current level, he said, it would mean an increasing number of people not economically active.
‘As that gets bigger because we’re living longer, do we either increase taxation by quite huge amounts or do we get a few more people who are economically active to balance it out?’
At present in Guernsey, 100 people support 51 who are not economically active.
Housing minister Dave Jones also spoke at the meeting.
‘The quality of the questions were very good and seemed to focus on the movement of 200 people in and out on a yearly basis,’ he said.
‘I think people accepted this would include Guernsey people coming back to work in a buoyant economy.’
He added the figure was not set in stone.
A question was also asked as to whether having the plan for 60 years was ridiculous.
‘It’s not. The whole point of population monitoring is that future administrations will be able to adjust the economy to suit the number of people they have at the time,’ said Deputy Jones.
In the past, population had effectively been left to economic cycles, growing in buoyant times and shrinking in downturns, he added.
‘One of the levers in the future will be to regulate the economy and give slightly more control then we had in the past.’
Housing control issues were also discussed.
The States reports say that the law needed to be maintained because there was not a better method.
‘That does not mean to say that in some areas the controls could not be tightened up,’ said Deputy Jones.
There was also support for an option favoured by the minister of a one-stop population office.
People coming to the island would register for social security and income tax in the same place, leading to a more up-to-date record being kept on the number.
Deputy Jones said that no-one would argue against the fact the island was overpopulated.
‘It’s how we tackle further overpopulation that’s really key to the whole question.’
Article posted on 2nd April, 2007 - 12.00am
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