STATES payroll costs are expected to rise by 2.7% above inflation next year despite the policy of controlling expenditure. This would mean an RPI-busting wage bill in four out of the last five years.
It comes as figures show there is a greater proportion of civil servants in the higher pay grades then ever before, sparking fears of a top-heavy public sector.
Estimates for 2008 show the States payroll at £163,368,000 - up 6.2% in cash terms.
Treasury and Resources is keeping a close eye on the rise.
‘That figure is one indicator we want to continue monitoring,’ said chief officer Dale Holmes.
‘If we saw this increase continue over years, the department would have concerns over that because of the policy it’s pursuing of controlling public sector expenditure.’
The estimate for this year sees an increase of 0.6% in real terms, following a fall in 2006 of 1.2%.
Mr Holmes said the 2008 estimated rise was made up of several elements.
There was 3.5% for next year’s pay settlements, the effects of the increase in social security charges, the progression of staff up the pay scales, any additional posts created and the through-flow of earlier pay deals.
Nearly all public sector pay agreements run for two years.
At the end of September, the States had an establishment of 4,463 full-time equivalent posts - although this does not translate directly to the actual number of people employed.
Over 50% of general revenue expenditure is on staff costs.
Treasury will on Friday announce details of its plans for a new way of controlling staff numbers as the current cap is replaced.
The inadequacies of the Staff Number Limitation Policy were exposed by a Scrutiny Committee report earlier this year.
After a States debate that indicated a clear desire for scrapping it, Treasury took on the task of fleshing out a system in which departments will have more autonomy to decide whom they employ, with the control being on their departmental budgets.
‘There would be a comprehensive system in place to record and report on staff costs and numbers, including vacancies, contract and temporary appointments,’ said Treasury minister Lyndon Trott in the 2008 Budget report.
The Health Department is the States’ biggest employer.
Its minister, Peter Roffey, warned of potential staffing difficulties ahead under the new tax strategy.
‘Public sector workers may have increases around RPI. The problem is that in the next four or five years, we’ve got this push to get people in the private sector into higher-paid jobs to increase ETI receipts so there will come a time when its harder to recruit in the public sector,’ he said.
‘We have no choice in the next year or two but to control these costs, but we can’t be totally removed from what happens in the private sector.’
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