This Is Guernsey

By Nick Mann

THERE are warnings of food shortages and pressure on the finance industry as the effects of depleted oil reserves hit home in Guernsey. But the island could bring in a framework and schemes to cope with the changes ahead, according to Powerswitch’s Adam Dadeby.

‘The big issue for Guernsey is how we’re all going to feed ourselves as the oil and gas start to decline,’ he said.

‘The way we produce, distribute and process food and cook it and dispose of waste afterwards is massively fossil fuel- dependent.

‘As the fossil-fuel era comes to a close, the food supply system will suffer. There will be shortages in the shops, prices will be very high and it’s going to be very difficult for people.’

Mr Dadeby said the positive thing the public could do was to grow food at home in gardens or greenhouses.

‘The island is very dependent on the finance industry and the finance industry is dependent on a growing economy. That’s dependent on a growing energy supply in simple terms,’ he said.

‘The energy supply is creaking. No alternatives or combination of alternatives will resupply the quality or quantity we get from fossil fuels. The energy supply will shrink to what we can supply with renewables.’

This will lead to the economy starting to crack, he said,

‘It’s the end of economic growth. Globalisation will go into reverse for physical trade and goods, even services. That must have a profound effect on the finance sector here.

It will have to either adapt quickly to change or it will collapse.

‘The financial environment will change in a way most leaders of the finance sector here can really accept to take on board yet.’

It was important to broaden the income base and reskill workers as a result, he added.

There were implications for education too.

The economic shift would mean more people needing practical skills.

Mr Dadeby backed Dr David Fleming’s ‘of The Lean Economy Connection’ idea of an energy-rationing scheme called tradeable energy quotas (Teqs).

He said it was important to address the issue from the bottom up, rather than governments imposing on individuals.

Teqs are measured in units.

Every adult is given a free entitlement, while government and industry have to bid for theirs.

At the start of the scheme, a full year’s supply of units is placed in the market, topped up every week.

If you used fewer than your entitlement, you could sell them. If you used more, you could buy them.

The number of units on the market goes down over a 20-year period, with the budget being set by the energy policy unit - a body independent of government.

Mr Dadeby was in the island to speak at a public meeting at Candie Museum organised by the Guernsey Climate Action Network on Friday night about the issues surrounding oil depletion. Dr Fleming also spoke at the meeting about a framework to reduce reliance on fossil fuels.

And a workshop was held the next day to debate how islanders could respond to the issues.