Nigel Jee with daffodils in his garden at La Houguette, Castel. It is now not unusual to see them flower in January. (Picture by Tom Tardif, 0696922)
THIS year should be exceptionally warm.
According to scientists, the Met Office and natural indications such as early primrose blooms, temperatures are on the rise and 2009 could be one of the warmest years on record.
This could have a major impact on plants, animals and people worldwide.
The global average for this year is forecasted to be more than 0.4C above the long-term average by researchers at the UK Meteorological Office and local weathermen anticipates that the trend will continue.
‘We have seen the last 13 out of 14 years to be above average and we anticipate this will continue in future,’ said Jersey Met’s principal officer Tony Pallot.
Although his team works with near-scale, short-term forecasts, rather than global models which cover entire years, he said the prediction made sense.
‘Most years are above the long-term average now,’ he said.
Observant islanders have been noticing nature’s signs of changing temperatures for some time, which some say might prove detrimental.
Gardening expert Nigel Jee said some flowers have been appearing a day earlier every year for 20 years.
‘With global warming they come out earlier and earlier every year. Primroses, for example, are definitely 20 days earlier than they were 20 years ago,’ he said.
Airport director Colin Le Ray said daffodils had appeared in his garden weeks ago, but Mr Jee said this was not a definitive example.
‘Daffodils are so erratic. You can’t deduce much from when they appear, they do what they want to,’ he said.
They have often appeared before Christmas, he said, sometimes as early as November.
Mr Jee said there was no doubt that global warming was occurring, but there was uncertainty concerning its causes.
‘The question is whether it would have happened without it anyway or whether it is man’s fault. My answer is really both. Man has probably accelerated it but temperatures have been going up for centuries.
‘Nature will have to catch up somehow because if flowers are out earlier and bees aren’t awake yet to pollinate them it could cause problems,’ he said, adding that although nature’s signs do represent changing temperatures, he had little faith in using them as forecasters or in man’s ability to forecast.
‘I don’t have the faintest idea what the weather or temperature will be like and animals and plants don’t really know either.’
Doctor Tim Sparks, a specialist at the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, predicted that invasive insect species could thrive in the UK if his prediction of wetter and milder winters and warmer drier summers comes true.
‘The likelihood is we will gain species from the south and lose more vulnerable native species,’ he said.togier@guernsey-press.com
Article posted on 5th January, 2009 - 2.29pm
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