THE disclosure yesterday that Guernsey’s house prices recorded their first fall in nearly 10 years is good news. While that might seem a contradictory statement, there are two factors supporting it.
The first is that the fall – of less than 3% – is minuscule compared to what has happened elsewhere. The second is that it has taken so comparatively long in this vicious recession to appear at all.
What the official statistics indicate is that Guernsey’s housing market is remarkably resilient. Yes, it has slowed significantly but the data also indicates that the number of transactions has started to increase and there is little doubt that, if the banks were to relax their penal attitudes to mortgage borrowing, sales and purchases would quickly rebound.
In short, confidence in the local market remains very strong. Why? Because people have jobs, good prospects and, at the heart of it, the economy is strong.
In all the debates about how Guernsey extends its social provisions and public services, attention rightly focuses on how that is to be paid for. What is so often lacking is any consideration of the sustainability of that spending.
It is one reason why getting the States of Guernsey to reduce expenditure is such a huge issue requiring consultants, multiple Billets d’Etat and a heavy Policy Council programme of information and education for States members (aka arm-twisting).
The entire system here is based on constantly rising government incomes, on surpluses so massive that various funds had to be invented to soak it up, and absolutely no worry that there wouldn’t be more next year.
For 30 years, that has held good and now that the luck has run out, it has come as a dreadful blow.
From having been focused on how to spend money, the States now has to become fixated on how to save it plus take cost out of its own operations with the minimum harm to services.
But perhaps the biggest change it now faces is more profound.
From having been able to turn business away, the island’s absolute priority is ensuring a buoyant jobs market to maintain this community.
Which is why Guernsey is today delighted to welcome the Chinese ambassador – and any partnerships that might bring.
Why house price drop is good news
THE disclosure yesterday that Guernsey’s house prices recorded their first fall in nearly 10 years is good news. While that might seem a contradictory statement, there are two factors supporting it.
The first is that the fall – of less than 3% – is minuscule compared to what has happened elsewhere. The second is that it has taken so comparatively long in this vicious recession to appear at all.
What the official statistics indicate is that Guernsey’s housing market is remarkably resilient. Yes, it has slowed significantly but the data also indicates that the number of transactions has started to increase and there is little doubt that, if the banks were to relax their penal attitudes to mortgage borrowing, sales and purchases would quickly rebound.
In short, confidence in the local market remains very strong. Why? Because people have jobs, good prospects and, at the heart of it, the economy is strong.
In all the debates about how Guernsey extends its social provisions and public services, attention rightly focuses on how that is to be paid for. What is so often lacking is any consideration of the sustainability of that spending.
It is one reason why getting the States of Guernsey to reduce expenditure is such a huge issue requiring consultants, multiple Billets d’Etat and a heavy Policy Council programme of information and education for States members (aka arm-twisting).
The entire system here is based on constantly rising government incomes, on surpluses so massive that various funds had to be invented to soak it up, and absolutely no worry that there wouldn’t be more next year.
For 30 years, that has held good and now that the luck has run out, it has come as a dreadful blow.
From having been focused on how to spend money, the States now has to become fixated on how to save it plus take cost out of its own operations with the minimum harm to services.
But perhaps the biggest change it now faces is more profound.
From having been able to turn business away, the island’s absolute priority is ensuring a buoyant jobs market to maintain this community.
Which is why Guernsey is today delighted to welcome the Chinese ambassador – and any partnerships that might bring.
Article posted on 6th November, 2009 - 3.07pm