THE States of Deliberation is now well into its long summer break. When it returns at the end of September, there’ll be something new in the air – election fever.

Isolated outbreaks of this mood-altering disease have been discernable in the chamber for months. But it’s always when the House reassembles after its final summer recess that election fever becomes acute, infectious and endemic.

The main symptoms? Deputies’ reasoning is distorted as they become transfixed by the coming judgement day like a rabbit in a car’s headlights. Traditionally, it’s led to a reduction in the States’ ability to take difficult decisions, but it’s hard to see how that can happen this time around. How on earth can members become even more indecisive?

Being optimistic, perhaps they’ll swing the other way. After all, the usual reason for baulking at hard decisions late in the political term is the burning desire not to upset any potential voters. This time around, deputies must be aware that many electors are already cheesed off with their track record of vacillation. So perhaps they’ll use the last six months trying to impress us all with their steely determination. I wouldn’t count on it, though.

If they can manage a genuinely coordinated and effective transport strategy, a robust, long-term waste strategy and a more cost-effective education system, as outlined by their own consultants, then I will metaphorically raise my hat to them and proceed to eat it.

Other key symptoms of election fever include hitherto low-profile deputies suddenly discovering the media, point-scoring between members/departments, longer question times at States meetings, ministers being high-profile on good news stories but replaced by ‘a spokesman for the department’ on controversial issues and the passionate championing of community issues within deputies’ own constituencies. Alas, there is no known cure or vaccine.

What of the likely candidature for next spring’s election? Judging by recent history, we’ll probably see about 90 hopefuls for 45 seats. But – a bit like the heats for the Olympic 100 metres – among the big field there will be quite a few who’ll struggle to be competitive.

I’m really not being disrespectful. Anybody putting him or herself forward for election deserves fulsome praise for their courage and public spirit. It’s just being honest – and if anybody kept a book on the local election (do they, by the way?) it would be reflected in the odds.

Therefore, the real election will consist of choosing 45 representatives out of about 60. Perhaps that’s one more reason to reduce the size of our States slightly to make that selection more meaningful. Oh, and the vast majority of sitting deputies choosing to stand again will be re-elected, despite lots of comments down the pub and on internet forums about getting rid of them all. That’s because enough of the old House will retire to make much more change a tad worrying to ‘middle Guernsey’.

So who will be offering themselves for election? We can be sure that several deputies who, in the years following the 2008 general election, were murmuring that ‘this will almost certainly be my last term’ will have a change of heart. They’ll either decide that the States can’t manage without them or else – more likely – they can’t live without the States.

Others will stick by their previous comments and go. They’ll be joined by some shock retirees, who everybody had assumed would be standing again. It will be surprising if there are quite as many sitting members calling it a day as last time around, but the numbers are still likely to be in double figures. After all, they’re not just deciding whether they’ve had enough of local politics, but also whether or not they have the appetite for four more years of it.

From outside the States, there will be the usual serial candidates and those who did quite well at their first attempt four years ago giving it another shot. Then there will be parish officials looking to step up a level and quite a few surprise packages – some pleasant, some not. There might even be the odd former member seeking to return, but far fewer than the rumour mill suggests.

The results of the election will almost certainly be largely predictable but with a couple of real shocks as a leading politician loses their seat or an unlikely newcomer is elected.

But all that’s months away. There’s serious business for the States to deal with first. Or should be.