JANUARY
We should see the keenly anticipated ‘Mulkerrin Report’ into education in Guernsey made public. Given that our results for five GCSEs at A* to C – including maths and English – has dropped so far behind comparable areas in the UK, it’s hard to see it being uncritical.
In Surrey, the figure for this key indicator is 63%, in Kent 62%, in Hampshire 61.5% and even in Essex it’s 58%. The results for Guernsey, where more money is spent per pupil, are just a smidgeon over 50%.
Will anything change? Will anybody take responsibility?

FEBRUARY
The States will no doubt gratefully agree to PSD’s proposed waste-disposal strategy. After years of prevarication, largely due to opposition to incineration, the preferred disposal route is… incineration. But our waste will be burned 20 miles away, so that’s OK.
During the debate, there will be utterly false claims made, such as ‘our waste will help Jersey’s incinerator run more efficiently’. In fact, our sister island has two smaller incinerators in one building and so can operate efficiently with a wide range of throughputs.
If the export scheme ever goes ahead, Jersey’s sole reason for taking our rubbish will be cash – and our only reasons for sending it, political weakness and Nimbyism.

MARCH
The candidates for the following month’s general election will emerge. There’ll be a couple of surprise retirees among the sitting deputies, but still far fewer stepping down than last time around.
The range of challengers from outside the States will be eclectic – advocates, businessmen, former States members, protest candidates, 20-somethings, plus the usual suspects. Taxation and the economy will be the main election issues, seasoned with a little bit of rubbish (disposal) and traffic/public transport.

APRIL
There probably won’t be wholesale changes to our States at the general election – there never is – but I suspect we will see a few more significant upsets than in recent years.
With a dearth of talented and experienced members to call on, there’ll be some surprise members of the new Policy Council. I even expect that one first-timer and one returnee may well walk straight into ministerial positions.
Other, more able members of the present Assembly who have enjoyed the status of ‘outsiders’ up to now may well be brought (almost reluctantly) into the ministerial camp.
There will once again be very few women ministers. Indeed, there may well be very few women deputies unless we see more female candidates coming forward. I hope we will, but I wonder.

MAY
The newly-elected Policy Council and T&R will be thrown straight into the deep end over Guernsey’s replacement tax strategy. They’ll be forced to choose between mimicking Gibraltar with its proposed flat 10% or following Jersey and the IoM with their new, super-competitive zero-10 regimes. In their hearts, they’ll want to follow Gibraltar to help increase government revenues from the corporate sector, but in the end they’ll decide it’s just too dangerous to our economy and will copy Jersey instead. This will lead to millions more being lost to the local exchequer and will require more increases in personal taxation and lower public spending.
The new States’ honeymoon will be over before it really began.

JUNE
The new PSD will try to make Guernsey’s official waste-disposal strategy work. It’ll run into several hurdles. T&R will refuse to provide significant extra funds to pay for new recycling facilities and kerbside collections, telling the department to find the cash within its existing budget. Initial talks with Jersey will also prove difficult, with the larger island only ready to contract to take our waste for the next 10 years.
The price will also be higher than expected, with the Jersey authorities explaining that in order to sell an unpopular policy, they need to show islanders they are getting a good deal.
Jersey will also be unwilling to agree to a strict ‘price per ton’ contract, saying that if they are going to take our waste, they need a guaranteed level of income from the operation.
In Guernsey, the requirements of the Public Health Department for storing and shipping the waste will also prove costly.
Meanwhile, Mont Cuet will reach ground level.

JULY
At about this time the ministers of the big-spending departments will start to issue stark warnings that ongoing spending constraints are having a serious impact on their work. HSSD and the other big spenders will say they face making significant service cuts if they are to stay within their allocated budget.
It will also dawn on deputies throughout the Assembly that there is little chance of introducing many new services over the next few years. That will make those who stood to make a difference over issues such as nursery education, health provision, children’s services or law and order start to feel very frustrated. Tetchiness may well start to break out between this faction and those whose prime political aim to is cure the black hole by reducing public spending.

AUGUST
Traditionally a welcome break from politics, but this year there will be lots of networking and plotting behind the scenes as the new States starts to fracture between those willing to see significant service reductions and those who aren’t. There will also be an increasingly animated debate over whether taxing the corporate sector a little more would really make Guernsey uncompetitive.

SEPTEMBER
With the new tax strategy finally decided, Social Security can at last deliver its long-awaited report on the sustainability of the funds they administer. The bad news – which has been flagged up for years – is that the actuaries advise a significant increase in contributions. The department recommends that this extra burden is split between employers and employees. The Chamber of Commerce and IOD describe the move as ‘a tax on jobs’.
The department also proposes an increase in long-term care contributions. Finally, they warn that in the long term the state pension age may have to rise to 68 or more instead of the planned 67. There may well be a close vote on an amendment to increase the upper earnings limit on social security contributions.

OCTOBER
The world economic situation, the end of low value consignment relief and the squeeze on States spending all combine to lead to significantly higher unemployment than at the same time last year. The States point out that at just under 500, the jobless total is still very low compared with Jersey or any country in Western Europe.
There’s a row during the debate on the strategic plan when T&R proposes there should be no funding for new projects but that all savings under the FTP should instead be used to help balance the budget. Some deputies make special pleading for projects they feel passionately about. Meanwhile Deputy Martin Storey claims that if they had listened to him and done this years ago, the black hole would be far smaller.

NOVEMBER
With both the options of building an incinerator and exporting to Jersey proving to be very expensive ways of dealing with Guernsey’s residual waste, PSD searches for a new landfill site to buy a few more years’ thinking time.  Environmentalists warn that landfill is a very bad option. PSD agrees but points out that its back is against the wall and that it has no time or money to spare. The new minister blames previous assemblies for their procrastination.

DECEMBER
With the States’ revenue spending still greater than its income, T&R announces that there’ll be no real terms increases in departmental budgets next year. HSSD and Education complain that this will lead to serious problems on the front line but the spending plans are approved anyway. Capital spending is also cut back, with a warning that projects like rebuilding La Mare de Carteret School could still be several years off. But the newly commercialised harbour, airport, dairy and water companies are given permission to borrow commercially for their capital requirements, with the cash to be repaid out of future income streams.
Ordinary islanders will be hit hard again, with rises in the duties on alcohol, tobacco and road fuel.
There is also a 10% rise in property rates.
On a more positive note, T&R reports it’s hopeful of balancing the States’ books within another two years.