GUERNSEY businesses are being warned to ensure they have emergency plans in place to counter the ongoing threat of a flu pandemic hitting the island. Speaking at a Business Continuity Institute seminar, sponsored by Itex, head of pandemic flu planning for the UK Cabinet Office Dr Liz McIntosh issued a number of suggestions, including:

* Checking generic contingency plans are applicable to a pandemic

* Ensuring core activities can be sustained over several weeks

* Identifying essential functions, posts and individuals whose absence would critically affect business

* Factoring in health and safety responsibilities

* Noting the possible consequences of interventions to contain the spread of infection, such as school closures, and

* To be flexible, if plans need to change in the wake of a virus.

After listening to Dr McIntosh, chairman of the Business Continuity Institute’s Channel Island Forum Chris Oliver said managers should view business continuity as more than merely completing paperwork.

‘From what Dr McIntosh told us, it’s clear that government will be able to help companies but it will not be unlimited assistance as the pressure on every resource will be huge,’ he said.

‘It’s not about just filling in templates but about defining your business – you need to plan ahead to protect your products and services.

‘If you can’t operate for even a few weeks, you would run the risk of losing key clients to your competitors.’

Itex managing director Richard Parker said Dr McIntosh had issued sound advice.

‘The overall message was to incorporate planning for a flu pandemic within business continuity plans.

‘If there is an outbreak and Guernsey is affected, then the prediction is that the island’s GDP could be cut by 0.75% in just one year, which is around £11m.

‘The figures she spoke about really made people sit up and take notice.

‘It’s estimated that over a 15-week period, between 50,000 and 750,000 people across the UK could die from a pandemic flu outbreak and, if the schools are closed, our workforce will be reduced by more than a third for weeks.’

Dr McIntosh’s department has a number of planning work streams including the medical response, whether the courts should continue to operate, communications, business continuity, education and social care.

She said that in addition to a publicity campaign educating people on basic hygiene measures, the UK government is concerned about employers not allowing staff time off work while they are ill.

‘Employers have been very firm about getting sickness levels down, but if this comes, we will need people to stay at home,’ she said.

‘We won’t want heroes or martyrs going into work ill.’

* It is estimated that the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak killed between 40 and 50 million people worldwide and the worst-hit age group was 20- to 60-year-olds.

In 1957 around two million died in an Asian flu outbreak and in 1968, Hong Kong flu accounted for a million deaths.