WILL Guernsey’s tourism industry benefit from the growth in short-break holidays? I ask the question because I know that in Jersey there is quite a lot of optimism that the island will see considerable growth in the number of individuals wanting to spend a few days in the island, probably on their second or third holiday of the year.

It’s hoped that business thus gained will compensate for the continuing downturn in the traditional summer season holidays.

I tested the proposition by pretending that I was in London and looking for a three-night break in the island in October – after the main season, but before the depths of winter.

Using everyone’s favourite web tool, I Googled ‘short break in Jersey’ and analysed the results, which were mixed to say the least.

So I thought I would conduct a similar exercise for a short break in Guernsey. The results are similarly both good and bad news.

The good news is that a lot of hotels appear to be offering attractive packages at this time of year.

Guernseybreaks.com was very useful and had a range of offers including a three-star champagne and roses break for £360 and a two-star gourmet break for three nights for only £159, which included a hire car.

So there was no shortage of hotels keen on providing short breaks.

In fact, at a glance it looked like there were more bargains on offer than in Jersey.

How much you would be prepared to spend on a few days in Guernsey would probably depend on how much it cost you to get here, although most people are attracted first by cheap air fares.

For the nights I chose in October, there was a fair amount of choice from London and I could have flown from Gatwick for £108 or £122 return.

So assuming I chose the cheapest flight and the best value gourmet package, my three nights in Guernsey would have cost me £267 per person, or about £90 a night.

I had come across one very good hotel bargain in Jersey for £129 for three nights, which included five-course dinner and wine each night and a free bar, but no car.

The cheapest Jersey package, including flights, would be about £214 (the flight from Gatwick was £85).

While I could get a cheaper break in Jersey, the experiment showed me that Guernsey was probably the better destination if you were looking for a bargain.

However, if you wanted a luxury break, Jersey was your better bet, with much more on offer even if you had to pay quite a lot for it.

So which island will scoop the short-break pot? Perhaps neither of them.

While searching the web I came across similar short-break packages to Nice and Barcelona for about the same price and obviously a much wider range of accommodation.

Those who are able to spend quite a lot of money on a few days away will no doubt be drawn to some of the newly-refurbished hotels in Jersey, rather than Guernsey’s more limited offering.

Those who want to get away for a cheap break might well prefer Guernsey.

The other possibility is that both groups will choose somewhere else because there’s more on offer and it’s just as cheap to go to Barcelona as it is to go to Guernsey.

This is a fundamental problem for the tourism industries of both islands. Everyone now accepts that it’s very difficult to compete against the Costas and other destinations in the mainstream tourism market.

So the answer is seen to be short breaks. But unfortunately, the same economics apply.

Whether it’s for three nights or three weeks, it’s going to be cheaper to get to a destination which is very popular and well served by low-cost airlines. The hotels will also benefit from a higher turnover of visitors.

Some people will always prefer Guernsey, even if it is a bit more expensive, but whether there’s enough of them to fill beds out of season is a big question.

Other visitors might be prepared to pay more if there were more luxury facilities on offer in Guernsey, which is the market Jersey appears to be concentrating on.

But with a couple of exceptions, there isn’t that much choice in the luxury end of Guernsey’s tourism offering.

Guernsey’s visitor economy is quite right in trying to extend the season and concentrating on attracting more people for shorter breaks.

But it’s not going to be easy. It’s going to require as much work as the traditional holiday market now requires.