Confident but cautious

Tuesday 3rd June 2008, 11:00AM BST.

0478606.jpgSt Peter Port douzanier and constable Barry Cash, 59 has been made Director of Guernsey Chamber of Commerce.

A PATTERN of cautious optimism has emerged from the business community in the Guernsey Chamber of Commerce’s latest study.
The 2008 Business Trends Survey revealed that while turnover, profit, staffing levels and confidence had all increased, there were still some concerns regarding stability prospects, government policy, growth and general costs.
More than 120 members representing all sectors of business took part in the survey – the biggest response for some years.
Chamber chairman Barry Cash said the good news was that by identifying the business community’s concerns early, there was maximum scope to address them.
‘Three key areas have been highlighted by this survey. Firstly, we hope that no one will tweak the zero-10 tax regime and therefore undermine confidence.
‘Secondly, how will the new States compare with the old one and will the structure be modified in some way in the future?
‘The third was the global credit crunch, although we’re not as exposed in Guernsey as other areas. When you put together these concerns, you can understand the uncertainty that lies ahead.’
The survey was conducted in conjunction with the Young Business Group and consisted of 39 questions relating to trading performance in 2007 relevant to 2008.
It found that half of respondents had seen turnover and profit increase by more than 5% year on year and 85% projected growth the same or better for 2008.
Thirty-five per cent of them had increased staffing levels during 2008 and more than 60% felt that their confidence for profitability had increased compared with 2007.
Despite that, 57% were less confident about Guernsey’s economic prospects over the next 12 months compared with last year.
The main reasons cited were political instability, the inexperience of new States members, tinkering with zero-10, the credit crunch, tax impact on fuel prices and global competition.
Population and planning policies were at the heart of many areas of concern that the business community identified as key to future economic success.
The survey revealed that the areas under States control that most affected business confidence were taxation, (34%), housing, (17%), regulation (14%) and planning (8%).
‘We are working with the Environment Department and will be having a meeting in a couple of months’ time to discuss all our concerns and theirs,’ said Mr Cash.
‘We have confidence in the new States, in their willingness to listen and to have constructive dialogue in the future.’
The finance industry had in the past been turned into an unjustified scapegoat for many people’s frustrations, said Mr Cash.
‘Only about 10% of housing licences issued are given to the finance sector, the vast majority being issued for public services.
‘Some people don’t appreciate what an economic advantage the finance industry gives Guernsey and to undermine that would be to undermine the prosperity of the island.’
The survey found that 64% of respondents felt the UK and Guernsey should not adopt the euro.
Mr Cash said that by remaining independent, the island was able to react more quickly to any upturn or downturn in the economic environment.
‘We’re holding our own extremely well in quite difficult times and that shows the flexibility and innovation of businesses in Guernsey, which should be maintained.’


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