MORE than half a year after they should have had a pay rise, Guernsey’s 1,000 manual staff know that they are to receive a 5% increase plus enhancements that lifts the settlement above the RPI threshold. It is not the near-8% the union side was demanding but islanders will consider it a pretty fair deal in the circumstances and, indeed, better than some others will have received in the private sector.

So the question is whether the protracted delay and subsequent industrial tribunal were worth it for the eventual outcome?

And it is difficult to see how anyone could say yes.

With the staff side blaming the employer for its refusal to keep negotiating and the employer saying the employees’ representatives had refused to accept a deal, it seems that if there was any intransigence, it was evenly matched. More revealing, the tribunal was quick to dismiss the union case for RPI plus 3%, a shorter working week and more holidays. In other words, that was an unreasonable claim and the reason why the Public Sector Remuneration Committee would not give way on it.

In those circumstances, why continue with fruitless negotiations? The benefit of compulsory arbitration is, as demonstrated this week, that it provides a quick resolution and – thanks to the union’s change of heart – no further industrial action.

The worry now, however, is twofold.

Firstly, the same groups of individuals are shortly to sit down to have very similar discussions for next year’s settlement. Unless there are some radical changes of view – and from the outcome of the tribunal, that means a more realistic claim – the island will be back where it started when things got messy this summer.

Secondly, how is this year’s pay rise to be funded?

Departments anticipated a 3.5% increase and so will have to fund the extra from savings elsewhere – unless they can persuade Treasury and Resources to give them extra money.

States policy is to keep costs at or below RPI and this settlement questions the ability of government to hit its own target, certainly when it comes to wages, which make up 48% of all expenditure.

In short, this is not a good settlement for the taxpayer.