Guernsey is heading for its own recession
Friday 7th November 2008, 2:29PM GMT.
GUERNSEY is set for a recession, Treasury minister Charles Parkinson has predicted.
Deputy Parkinson said that a few months ago it was believed the global economic downturn would be relatively shallow and not very prolonged.
‘Now it looks like it will be deeper and more severe than we could possibly have expected,’ said Deputy Parkinson. ‘We were hoping Guernsey would perhaps escape the recession, skim along the bottom and not go into the red. We now think probably Guernsey itself will also have a recession, but hopefully milder and shorter than that one would expect in the UK.’
However, measuring a recession in the island is not possible.
‘We don’t know what retail sales are doing, for example. We do know there’s very little activity in the housing market – there doesn’t seem to be too much evidence of prices falling.Unemployment remains very low, but we do have quite a limited set of data to monitor the health of the economy,’ he said.
The economic situation could also have implications for the zero-10 tax strategy, which came into effect at the beginning of the year, because one of the key planks of it is economic growth.
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This Island has been heading towards recession for a long time. Do any of us locals actually want this zero-ten tax stategy? I most definately don’t. Economic growth is an absolute joke. Let those that can compete do so and those that cant go. Businesses are and always should be just that. Are we expected to feel charitable about those that have whilst at the same time we are quickly being left with nothing other than fond memories. Can I set up a business elsewhere and expect taxpayers to hand me incentives? If anybody has an answer please let me know because my finances always welcome a tasty boost. I am not too proud to look a gift horse in the mouth. It is time us local gift horses (DONKEYS) said NAY. We also need to keep this stance and remain as stubborn as the proverbial at all costs. What has this brought us? Misery and recession and for what exactly? So that we can compete towards bringing our own homeland to its knees. Who championed this in the first place? Our good friend Deputy Trott who now turns his back when we all need direction more than ever thanks to his own actions. As shareholders in Guernsey PLC we should all be asking him to step down before he creates more damage. Would Deputy Falla come back to politics? It would be the answer to a lot of our prayers. This is yet another mess our CM has got us into. Maybe he will have bright ideas in selling off Guernsey Water next like he did with our Telecoms infrastructure. Maybe this could be done over a pint and for a tenner. Our qualiy of water would benefit though he would have us believe. Am I the only person to realise that this man is doing nothing other than sripping this island of its silverware and appears being left to do so unchallenged? I would welcome any other persons points of view other than Stephen John.
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Paul – correct me if I’m wrong but your post sounds like you are blaming Lyndon Trott and the Zero-10 tax strategy for the recession we are entering. Chief Minister Trott may not be the most popular politican and Zero-10 not the most popular policy in some quarters however neither can be blamed for the recession we are entering.
The global economic downturn is responsible and (whilst I’m no economist) I seriously doubt whether Guernsey would have avoided its effects either by maintaining the status quo or adopting the tax strategy proposed by Charles Parkinson.
Yes, we should look to our politicans for action but ultimately this is far bigger than Guernsey and in reality there is little we can do except hope that, when all is said and done, we emerge from this crisis relatively unscathed.
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Charles Parkinson seems to have done as good a job as is possible given the economic circumstnaces.
The removal of the freezing of personal allowances is to be applauded.
I do wonder how much more people friendly the budget would have been, if the States had listened to Deputy Parkinson about zero 10, and had even grasped the nettle and gone with Deputy Matthews on a delay of zero 10.
Going for out and out growth at the end of a trade cycle was always a slightly daft risk as some of us said on the Editors Blog, but has proved to be a risk too many.
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Paul Le P
I am not blaming Trott for the recession that we are entering into because its global. When it hits it is one of those things which few of us can do much about. We are too greedy and have our own actions to blame. I am though saying he is not fit to be where he is placed. It would appear that he has lots of bright ideas which cost us a lot of money and most of these things are not needed or actually what we want. We need a CM that listens to its electorate rather than just thinking he has all the answers. He fails on most levels. He strives for respect and even demands it. In my book respect is something that is earned. It does not come with a job title. Maybe he needs to grasp this and start showing respect to the people that he claims to represent. If his title was left up to the the people he would not be where he is now. I am very sure of this. A good CM should steer us away from trouble but he appears to head straight for it and look to blame whatever or whoever he can think of. Most of the time he won’t even give an account of what went wrong or why? A CM should be an asset not a liability. Yes in my opinion Charles Parkinson would be a much better individual for the role.
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Politicians i have never heard so much rubbish, most of them are uneducated and voted because they are popular. I have said now for 4 years Guernsey will go bust and i was right. I am so glad barack obama has come in to power because his intention is to stop all these tax havens and bring back good old healthy competition. What does it mean for guernsey??? Well alot people in finance will lose their jobs. Yes it will be difficult to find jobs but it will mean people will have to go and develop skills to get other jobs. The recession only affects people in debt and it means tightening your purse strings im afraid and house prices will fall giving the first time buyers an opportunity to buy whereas before they couldnt so it isnt bad for all of us, im not worried as it means im in a excellent position to get on the property market.
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Paul I stand to be corrected but I believe that Guernsey Telecoms was sold to Cable and Wireless some considerable time before Deputy Trott even became a deputy, let alone before he became T&R Minister. But obviously you are so blinded in your attempts to unfairly blame him for absolutely everything that this minor detail may not actually have occurred to you.
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David
Yes you can stand corrected. Our good friend did indeed champion this sale or gift. Call it what you wish!
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Wel the island earns a substantial amount out of document duty – well it did. This does not bode well for next years tax receipts.
Might be the time to stop the immoral ‘sale’ of domestic property via ‘share transfer’?
The House being so full of ‘men of property’ I somehow doubt that will ever happen.
We need all the cash we can get and this is an easy loophole to close.
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