‘Zero growth will be the envy of many nations’
Friday 16th January 2009, 2:30PM GMT.
TREASURY minister Charles Parkinson (pictured) predicts Guernsey will experience zero growth this year.
And he believes 2010 will be only marginally better at 0.5%.
But he said these figures will be the envy of many other countries.
‘That’s just a personal view and the numbers may not sound very exciting, but compared to what is happening elsewhere that would show considerable resilience in the Guernsey economy.’
Figures for the island’s gross domestic product in 2008 probably will not be available till midway through 2010, but the provisional figure for GDP growth in 2007, according to the Policy Council’s 2008 Guernsey Facts and Figures booklet, was 2.6%.
Deputy Parkinson’s cautious optimism in Guernsey’s economic resilience comes as a World Economic Forum report warned that a hard landing for China’s economy could put heavy stress on the global financial system.
The report said there was a risk that Chinese growth could slow to 6% or below this year.
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Rather than look at relatives Perhaps Depputy Parkinson should look inwards and contemplate the effect on zero 10 that was based on growth of about 3%, low inflation and curtailing public expenditure.
Result of failure of zero10?
Higher deficits etc.
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We all know Lyndon Trott pushed through the Zero 10 strategy based on various factors which are now proving to be wildly wrong, perhaps a year delay and some of Zero20 would have been the more prudent option.
What we do need to see is restrained public expenditure without resulting in unemployment, and no borrowing unless we find an oil reserve within our waters!
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We should all be concerned about zero growth given the dependence on growth for the success of zero ten.
We may be doing better than other countries and hope to be “resilient”, but zero growth coupled with falling interest rates are a real threat to Guernsey’s prosperity. The States will also have to contend with falling income on their own cash investments, and falling income tax receipts from tax payers as their interest income falls. The real impact of this will probably not be apparent until next year.
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Charles is piloting a ship he never wanted launched
Our structural deficit is something like 30million per annum. There will be no growth to fill that hole in the next 5 years, if ever; the ‘go for growth’ strategy vanguarded by Messrs. Falla and Trott was never going to work.
Ok Charles, everyone finally gets it now! You are at the helm, time you plotted a new course.
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Forget about zero 10, zero growth and all the other rubbish that spills out of our politicians mouths. What would be the envy of many and every nation would be to have an Island running entirely on tidal power.
Replace the pathetic bus service that holds its hand out to the tax payer year in and year out with electric trams and shuttle buses that run off electric.
Sell off all the surplus electric to our French neighbours and we have finance without the greedy winging finance industry.
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