AS the dust settles on what has been hailed a ‘historic’ G20 summit, it is clear that a new financial world order has been born. What is less certain is precisely what the near future holds for economies around the globe, not least Guernsey’s.

Glancing through our own newspaper’s headlines yesterday revealed a mixed financial picture.

Pride of place obviously went to the ringing international endorsement from the OECD that the island’s tax status has been classed a shining light among offshore finance centres.

This, along with an earlier story that -  at least until up to the end of the last quarter – Treasury figures show the island bucking the global trend and escaping recession all makes welcome reading.

But it is also clear that the island is far from out of the woods. Being complacent is not an option – the first icy blasts of the storm may have been weathered but, as recent events have made clear, there are more to come.

That much is obvious from other news in the  same edition that reported how a survey of the island’s business leaders has revealed confidence to be at its lowest level for four years.

While officially its impact may lag behind the UK, the global recession is now biting on our shores. Local jobs already lost, unemployment on the rise and several business closures.

Now three-quarters of our captains of industry – our economic lifeblood – are less certain about Guernsey’s prospects than they were 12 months ago. Nearly half blame the slowdown, while almost one-third blamed States expenditure and policies of the past.

The good news is that they believe Treasury and Resources’ latest plan to spend £175m. on major capital projects, such as fixing the airport’s runway, is the right way forward. Borrowing money is never ideal, but they say at least ring-fencing the cash will ensure vital projects happen, at the same time as providing a boost to a beleaguered local building industry and other support businesses.

Centre-stage on the economic podium at the moment, however, still remains the G20 victory, which brought almost audible sighs of relief from every corner of our finance industry.

The chief minister tells us it is the shot in the arm our prized finance sector needs – although, as our page 3 story shows, one tax haven critic is   slamming the latest news as a false dawn.

Let us hope our man is right, that the critics are wrong and that the island remains as competitive as before. Only time will tell if making the ‘white list’ really was an economic ‘get out of jail free card’.