A PROMINENT campaigner against global tax abuse and the role allegedly played in it by the Crown Dependencies has predicted that the forthcoming report by the Foot Commission imposed on the islands by the UK’s Chancellor will set the scene for these offshore islands to have a post tax haven existence. The trade Guernsey now has, he says, is unacceptable and unlikely to survive.

Given that the bulk of the island’s prosperity comes from the financial services sector, that is a worrying claim. Of course, it is possible that Tax Justice Network founder Richard Murphy is wrong but what even his biggest critics – there are many – would acknowledge is that there is an escalation in the pressures facing financial centres.

At the very least, there is more concerted  action by the high-spending, high-taxing jurisdictions to remove any competition to them. Whether that means Guernsey adjusting to a climate of more regulation and transparency but essentially business as usual or, as Mr Murphy predicts, the end of current trade, remains to be seen.

While islanders’ level of optimism for the future will depend on which expert they believe, there can be little doubt that the future is more uncertain than it has been for possibly the last 30 years.

And it is against that backdrop States members will shortly be asked to support a spending programme in excess of £300m. supported by unprecedented borrowings of £175m.

Before voting on a debt package that, as we have argued, has been subjected to no meaningful scrutiny, members should simply ask themselves: would I be doing this now if it were my money?

If Peter Roffey was right writing here on Tuesday that deputies (and after 17 years as one, he should know) are thin-skinned, superficial characters interested only in remaining popular, islanders should not expect a truthful answer.

The point, however, is that Guernsey has at best an uncertain future and its government hasn’t even got day-to-day expenditure under control.

Yet Treasury and Resources is actively encouraging the Assembly to embark on a furious spending spree underpinned by debt – a scenario, islanders will reflect, that on a rather wider scale triggered the global credit crunch.

Guernsey has to start living within its means while it still can.