ONE of the more remarkable elements emerging from a G4: Looking Forward forum of the island’s four main business groups was an almost unanimous acceptance that bad things are going to happen, although no one wants them to.

Not in the direct economic sense of the current difficulties facing the global and island communities, although no one underestimates the severity of that, but in the way government here will act.

Members of the Chamber of Commerce, Institute of Directors, Confederation of Guernsey Industry and the Guernsey International Business Association were uniformly of the view that the States  could – and should – reduce expenditure substantially.

Cutting £30m. a year, or 10%, was seen as realistic although other business leaders suggested 15% reductions were equally achievable.

But would it happen? No. Too much self-interest in the essentially tribal States departments which would do whatever they could to avoid working corporately and thus maintain their own fiefdoms.

Such savings would clearly cover the cost of borrowing the £175m. required to fund capital projects but, since it is not going to happen, taxes will have to rise.

They should not, because a risk of diminishing returns and damage to business was identified, but it would happen anyway.

Closer cooperation with Jersey? Again, eminently sensible and worthwhile but it will never happen.

So the low tax and growth options opened up by zero-10 have evaporated and what’s left is higher taxes and zero growth.

That pessimistic outlook appears to be confirmed in presentations being given to interest groups by the States Fiscal and Economic Policy Steering Group, which has been taken by some to imply that taxes will have to rise just to cover borrowings permitted under the draft fiscal policy framework to be debated by the Assembly.

There are complex arguments to be had about how prudent borrowing levels are established and rules have to be set to keep high-spending politicians in place.

That said, however, all that has been published by government makes it clear that deputies are already planning substantial tax rises and have no intention of reining back.

So the two questions yesterday’s debate highlights are why the States refuses to listen and why we all let them get away with it?