WHILE the world was waking up yesterday to the unfolding drama of just how significant the outbreak of swine flu in Mexico could be, another indicator was also coming into play.

By mid-afternoon, shares in British Airways were down 7.4% and Thomas Cook fell 4.3% over fears that their businesses are potentially at risk if the disease worsens and people either stop travelling or else are prevented from doing so.

And that, possibly even more than the impact of a pandemic itself, is the real danger in what is happening across the Atlantic.

As we report in a specially-commissioned article on Page 10 today, there is a chance that the epidemic could ‘burn out’ at its Mexican epicentre without having seeded a pandemic and that the approaching summer could also be a barrier to the spread of swine flu.

For islanders and everyone else wanting reassurance, however, the worrying thing is that we will not know whether this is a pandemic in the making until it actually has become one.

On the plus side, the authorities – and that includes Guernsey – have had ample time to put contingency plans in place and more than adequate stocks of antiviral treatments are readily available even if swine flu does go global.

The response from Health and Social Services Department is also reassuring despite, as the minister accepts, the way this is unfolding being quite frightening. If – and everyone will hope that it remains theoretical – matters develop significantly, then a large number of people will become ill and the authorities, as they have done in Mexico, will act to reduce people gathering.

The closure of schools, warnings to staff not to go to work unless absolutely essential, plus absence through sickness are all things that could impact on an already weakened economy.

Businesses damaged as a result of the credit crunch would struggle to survive without normal levels of customers and staff.

The seriousness with which the health authorities are reacting is a wake-up call to commerce generally to ensure it, too, has contingency plans in place.

The global economy is already ailing and can ill-afford a pandemic to test it still further.