Market gains offer hope – but it might not last

Monday 4th May 2009, 2:30PM BST.

David ChanTHERE is hope that the worst of the recession could be over following the rally seen in global equities last month – so much so that UK stocks posted their biggest monthly gains in six years.

The FTSE 100 moved up 8.1% in April, while Asian and European shares also rose with the Nikkei 225 Average experiencing 8.9% growth last month and the pan-European Eurofirst 300 rising by 12.9%. Local stockbroking firms are also optimistic about the future of the markets, although Cenkos private client officer David Chan did urge some caution, despite respected figures such as fund manager Anthony Bolton of Fidelity International stating that the bear market was ending.

‘The question is whether it’s the start of a new bull market or a bear market rally,’ said Mr Chan (pictured).

‘There are still plenty of effects yet to be seen, particularly in terms of debt management in the UK and the full effects of unemployment and how that will play out.’

Spearpoint chief investment officer Kevin Boscher said it was no surprise to the team at Spearpoint that equity markets had enjoyed a powerful recent rally and put this down partly to the unprecedented policy action of global authorities.

There were in his opinion certainly ‘green shoots of recovery’, especially in China and Asia.


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    Peter

    There are plenty of reasons to consider Mr Chan’s scepticism well warranted. It would have been truly amazing if the stimulus packages applied almost universally throughout the world had resulted in no positive effect. However, the commercial real estate sector, credit card defaults, printing money (especially in the UK and USA), the continuing issues associated with Eastern Europe and the Baltic States not to mention Credit Default Swaps make the resumption of a Bull market now very unlikely.
    When this bear market rally is over, it will look like wishful thinking as the markets plumb new depths. Take the opportunity to sell by the end of May (and go away).

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