IN A welcome change from previous public comments, Treasury and Resources is today looking ahead to freezing States expenditure after allowing for inflation and indicates that the recommendations from consultant Tribal Helm will be key to helping achieve that.

What is not so clear from the department’s new-look accounts, which are designed to be easier to read, is just what a struggle that will be.

While what government spent last year was up by just one per cent, that was achieved only after stopping the £17m. grant to Social Security. In other words, not only did the States spend more last year, it also passed a multi-million burden onto islanders by increasing social security charges.

Looking elsewhere, Home, Health and Social Services, Environment, Education and T&R itself all spent more than in 2007.

In addition, States expenditure, as defined by what the departments spent, conveniently ignores the impact of so-called formula led costs such as off-island placements, legal aid and States members’ payments.

The underlying trend there is upwards and, at £44m., it is a significant slice of taxpayers’ money that is deemed to be too difficult to be controlled and so isn’t.

What all this means is that if public finances are to be reined in, politicians and their advisers will have to become very creative indeed if they are to avoid slashing services.

That will be the instinctive response. Neither the deputies nor the civil service has a culture of change, of flattening management structures, making redundancies or doing more with less.

That is not to say these things, along with returning to the private sector those things government should not be running, cannot happen.

However, the instinct will be to turn away from such action – which will mean increasing taxes.

The burden on islanders has already risen and what the Treasury minister’s foreword to the accounts actually means is, ‘buddy, you ain’t seen nothing yet’.

Tax and spend is not inevitable – but only if deputies do their job and insist that the financial disciplines under which the private sector operates apply to the States too.