Island avoids recession

Friday 12th June 2009, 2:30PM BST.

0751513 GUERNSEY escaped recession last year, the chief minister announced yesterday.

Speaking at the launch of the new States Strategic Plan, he also stated his confidence that economic decline would be avoided this year.

‘The real message of massive public interest is that we came nowhere near recession last year and forecasts indicate we will substantially avoid it this year,’ he said.

This was in stark contrast to most other jurisdictions.

‘When I go on trips, the question I get asked time and again is: Are we in recession in Guernsey and are we going to go into it?

‘We now have sufficient evidence to confirm we didn’t enter recession last year nor do we expect to enter it this year.

‘We will avoid [it]. A lot of people in Guernsey will breathe a huge sigh of relief.’

Deputy Trott said his claims were based on thorough research.

‘The real solid message is that the economic numbers for last year show our economy grew in excess of 2% and maybe as much as 3%. Eight separate economic models which have been done by [States economist] Dr Andy Sloan and his team indicate that growth this year will be in excess of 1%. By comparison, the UK economy is expected to shrink by more than 3.5%.’

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1
Arnald

June 12, 2009 at 3:12 pm

If this is true then we should be thanking Gordon Brown and Alastair Darling for their ‘fiscal stimuli’ enabling the financial markets to keep ticking. The Tory team would not have had the guts to implement these drastic measures (or if they did it would be counter to their natural thinking).

So maybe all this ‘only the Tories are our friends’ is not entirely true?

It has to be noted that if this is as bad as it’s going to get, then it doesn’t bode well for the non-finance sectors. Wages are suppressed, house prices are rising, cost of living is rising and the job market will still shrink.

The only way to pay for the stable public sector so needed by the private sector to operate successfully (in this model) would be to replace those businesses that do not create wealth with those that do. The fear is that most local businesses will simply be uncompetitive and Guernsey will become more dependent on the finance industry. With directives being hammered out in the EU and US to restrict certain tax avoidance vehicles, are we really in such a stable position to be sustainable?

Without measures to boost self reliance in energy and other resources further talk about coping with outside pressures becomes a futile gesture. We will end up a shell, all front, no substance.

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2
davee

June 13, 2009 at 10:43 am

How and where does the islands economy flourish ?does this mean that figures are given in from the business houses (banks)who claim to have taken investments of several gazillion dollars from a bloke who claims to be ,say( a peruvian coffee grower) and if so ,and no tax is paid ,then how does it benefit the working people of the island ,all it does is bring in another bunch of white settlers to run the growing bit of paper ,plus their kids plus aging mum and dad ,in other words they use the roads ,social services etc and pay a reduced amount of tax due to having most of their funds somwhere else, they take up space in a very crowded island where most of them couldn’t point to it on a map . the reality is that if the island has managed to claw back the missing 100 mill ,and gathered tax in to elevate the coffers to 3-5 % more than the year before ,then why are shops closing ,people losing jobs ,tradesmen and services struggling for work ,people not able to go out as they used to,not using public transport ,town deserted most nights,houses not selling and a general dissatisfaction with the lies and utter rubbish we are force fed .you can believe what you are told by people who don’t have a clue ,or you can go out there and see for yourself ,it’s up to you ,one is real ,one is not

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3
Frank

June 13, 2009 at 1:14 pm

Technically, maybe Mr Trott is right, but in reality we have falling house prices (many will disagree with me but I could quote numerous examples of houses on the market with reduced prices), high unemployment, a building trade struggling to find work (GEP this week) etc etc, so although I welcome the news that we are not really in recession, we still have all the symptoms.

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4
Conrad

June 14, 2009 at 4:07 pm

Those at the top will always escape recession.
Their the ones who cause it so as to be able to buy more property ect at much reduced prices.
Try telling some of those further down the ladder who have lost their jobs the Island has escaped.

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