NOW that the World Health Organization has declared a swine flu pandemic and the first case has been recorded in Jersey, islanders can merely wait for events to take their course.

The acknowledgment by the CI health authorities that up to a third of the populations here could be affected is an indication of just how bad things could become.

And in discussing these matters, that is one of the problems.

The ‘what if..?’, worst case scenarios can be seen as alarming, almost scaremongering. Yet unless islanders are aware of the anticipated consequences of a pandemic they cannot truly be prepared.

Guernsey’s authorities are, however, ready. The Influenza Pandemic Contingency Plan is a detailed study of the likely effects and sets out the objectives of the plan in saving lives and alleviating suffering – a headline priority that is in itself frightening enough.

The document also clarifies the leadership needed to help the community through such a period and also charts some of the likely outcomes. It is not cheerful reading.

Yet it is only by being aware of what communities face in a pandemic situation and by having planned for it that the worst consequences can be mitigated.

If the disease spreads as expected – and for many of those responsible for implementing the contingency, it will be the first real experience they have of it – no part of local society will be unaffected.

Up to 50% of the workforce may require time off at some stage during the pandemic cycle either through illness, looking after someone else who is sick, because the schools have closed or because they are too frightened to go in themselves.

The impact of that on businesses, and the health and social services, would be profound and potentially extend to the island’s supply chain.

In the report, concern is expressed that shortages of fuel and transport workers could hit essential services and that the airport’s opening hours might need to be curtailed.

While all this is unthinkable, previous pandemics serve to highlight the need for rigorous thinking ahead like that here.

The message is clear: prepare for the worst and hope for the best.