Swine flu is coming and it could hit 20,000 islanders
Wednesday 17th June 2009, 2:29PM BST.
MORE than 20,000 islanders could be hit by swine flu this autumn, according to Guernsey’s director of public health.
Dr Stephen Bridgman agreed with his Jersey counterpart that the disease, which has claimed its first UK victim, could affect a third of the islands’ populations.
Jersey Medical Officer of Health Rosemary Geller said she was expecting a sharp rise in the number of cases in the island and that in a worst-case scenario a third of the population could be infected by the autumn.
Dr Bridgman said Guernsey was facing the same problems.
‘We expect a similar percentage of cases in Guernsey over a one- to three-month period,’ said Dr Bridgman. ‘We are planning for that.’
The consequences of such a widespread illness would be severe.
Guernsey has more than 30,000 employed people and if the worst infection rate occurred, even spread over the longest anticipated timescale, that still suggests around 850 to 1,200 islanders would be off work at any given time. And that figure does not take into account quarantining, fear – or bereavement.
Such widespread illness would have implications for health care providers, the hospitals and possibly the emergency services.
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Hundreds have caught this on the mainland, but only one person (with underlying health issues) had regrettably died.
Given how many people are killed on the roads each year, isn’t it a time for a little adult perspective on this rather than the ‘We’re all going to die’ approach ?
This is a flu bug that will make you ill, but is only really dangerous to the young, elderly or those already ill.
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Has anyone ever stopped to think and take in the true cases, the Lady in Scotland, who unfortunately lost her life, was not due to swine flu, undelying problems, in fact a heart attack, the other cases have been confined, this like the recession is an all out panic attack from the powers at be, I for one would like the true facts to be published and not heresay. Again this is the Press jumping on the bandwagon. My Husband is a very ill person, I have been in constant touch with the medical team who assure me there is no problem, so why do we have to be told we are all going to die from Swine Flu. Anyone in their right mind, should realise no matter what kind of flu is around we could die, so please lets stop world wide panic, when it is not made official. Does anyone remember when we had no oil, sugar, bread etc., the same thing happened. If there was a true Swine Flu Epidemic, I am quite sure the World Health Organisation would make it Official, to which they have not done at present. So can we all go on with our lives and stop making headlines rule our lives until we are told by the proper sources.
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Ok we all know this is a real threat,I am sitting in Dubai airport as I write this and a few people are wearing masks.
The only thing that gets to me is that we dont actually know how many people this will effect,20000 is an estimate,it could be more,could be less,we just dont know,so why dont these people stop looking for publicity with random guesses and stop scaring people.Its something us Guernsey people love doing,scaring each other.
It could effect 20 people, 20000 people or the whole population,im no expert but do i get a headline for my guesses ?
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We truly are a race of people who thrive on paranoia.
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Bird flu, SARS. Now swine flu. We are all going to die. Again! Sensationalist rubbish!
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it has been confirmed that the lady who died in scotland was killed by swine flu,in that the virus caused her death not the underlying health problems.having said that in most cases it is a mild infection and not a serious threat at the moment,but the autumn will be the time that we will know if it will get worse.what worrys me is unlike jerseys vaccine policy when it becomes available ,guernseys board of health is more secretive and does not say if it has any back up plans to buy enough vaccine from the uk if it becomes neccesary i.e the disease becomes a threat to healthy young adults.
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Average worldwide yearly mortality rate from Common Influenza Virus (not epidemic or pandemic, just normal Flu)= up to 500,000 deaths (Source: W.H.O.)
Confirmed deaths from “Swine Flu” worldwide = 232 (Source: W.H.O.)
The mainstream media around the world are pushing the so-called “Swine Flu Pandemic” 24 hours a day, their ratings are skyrocketing while around the world, Swine flu masks, gloves, and $49.00 Swine Flu Kits are flying off the shelves faster than stores can stock them. Megatons of Tamiflu are on the way to save us all(!) and shares of Roche and GlaxoSmithKline are rising on the stock market. In this recession, at least someone is making money off of scaring the **** out of people!
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What a load of absolute bunkum, when these ridiculous figures prove to be hopelessly inaccurate Dr Bridgman ought to be taken to task. And it isn’t enough to say “Well that’s what Jersey thought, so I thought the same”!!
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I’d like to dispute one myth that I keep seeing repeated here and elsewhere.
It’s true (from early estimates) that the mortality rate for the Mexican H1N1 virus is only slightly higher than ordinary flu. It’s also true that ordinary flu is most dangerous to the very young, elderly, or sick. People therefore assume that if you’re healthy and in the prime of life then you’re safe.
Not true! This is the group that Mexican H1N1 is hitting the hardest, with most deaths from this virus in the 15 to 54 age range (New Scientist, May 16-22).
Everyone is praying that this virus fizzles out, in which case everyone will smugly say “I told you so”. But if it does bounce back in a repeat of the 1918 pandemic I bet most of the commentators on this article will be at the head of the queue for vaccine, and will be baying for blood because the authorities weren’t prepared.
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If we all worried about everything we should be worrying about – we really would end up being ill with the stress of it all!
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S – Sure you can’t worry about everything, and it’s good to see that people are trying to put some perspective around the risks.
All I’m asking is that: Firstly, people use good information to base choices on rather than promoting myths, and secondly, people accept responsibility for those choices.
If this thing should turn nasty this autumn, I just wonder how quickly the bravado will turn to panic and anger!
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i agree with ian ,i accept that the board of health has does everything it should have done up till now.but things could change in the autumn and i accept that some people may die ,but what i wouldnt accept is people suffering severe illness or death when there is an effective vaccine avaliable in the autumn,or because they only want to give it to certain groups not the general population.the uk government has ordered 90 million vaccine for swine flu,so im sure they will start there vaccination programme as soon as they get it.
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Even if the swine flu is not a huge killer, if the autumn brings an increase in illness requiring people to stay home it will impact on the island. The other problem is that the workforce may well decrease. If schools shut one parent will have to stay home to care for them. Not everyone can work from home: shop workers, healthcare workers, emergency services, teachers, …….wouldn’t take much to bring this island to a standstill!
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Molly,
One vital group of people you forgot to mention when you say it wouldn’t take much to bring the island to a standstill – the Airport Firefighters.
They seem to be affected by a lot of sickness now, God help us if swine flu reaches these shores!!
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Subject to confirmation it is stated that Swine Flu a H1N1 strain of flu has been linked to the outbreak of Asian Flu that also being a closly (H1N1) related virus and if that is so anyone who contracted that version in the 1950′s should be immune from this version, this also could account for the fact that there has been no reported cases of this occuring in the +50yr age group, hoping this might be of comfort to members of the older age group.
SPRINGBOK (South Africa)
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I’ve been to the supermarket and bought 6 years worth of canned food and water.
I’m off to hide in the sterile room that I built when I read this headline.
I’ll be offline too, just in case the virus somehow makes it down the phone line to my computer.
I will tentatively pop my head out in 6 years, and if i am the only one left alive, I shall do enough living for all of you, hopefully I wont be confronted by packs of zombies horribly mutated by this horrific killer virus.
God speed everyone, I wish you all the luck, you are going to need it.
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Watch “I am Legend”. Be afraid, be very afraid!!
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Martini – sadly you’ve hit the nail on the head. The problem these days is that many people seem to struggle in distinguishing reality from fiction and end up basing their reactions on what they see at the movies rather than on facts.
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well some things are fact:
If we had a wide scale flu outbreak on the island and we had not considered the worst case senario our Director of Public Health and The Emergency Service would be under pressure to resign
So dammed if they do prepare and dammed if they dont
the media will always spread doom and gloom
but if we can minimise the spread and effect on our island I say use them to publize the worst with common sense approach to preventing spread by teaching good hygiene and the other measure outlined
we have been lucky so far only a few people have died it must be terrible for the families affected by this flu…
but do not be fooled if a third of all staff at the hospital and the emergency service were all ill……. disaster so best to prepare.
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You mean it’s not actually going to happen? Rats! I’ve just bought an old bunker, too….!
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There’s no way I’ll catch it while I’ve got my head buried firmly in the sand.
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