IT MAY seem bizarre during the first half of a political term but one subject which seems to be occupying the minds of many States members is how many of them will be stepping down in 2012. Why this obsession about retirement plans? There are two answers.

The official one is concern over continuity. The argument goes that 2008 saw an almost unprecedented number of experienced members quitting politics. As a result, we saw 19 new members in a House of just 45 (excluding Alderney), of which 17 had no previous experience in local politics. If that were to be repeated in 2012, we could see a States where the vast majority had no more than a four-year track record.

The sub-text to all this gossip about retirements is that the more who call it a day, the better the chances are of the rest being re-elected. More significantly, the more senior members who leave, the better the chances are of promotion. Quite why the relatively carefree junior members should be lusting for the pressures and responsibilities which are making their ministers/ chairmen go grey and pile on weight is a deep mystery – but be assured most of them are.

So should we be worried about all this talk of another mass exodus? Well, maybe over the fact that it’s such a focus of deputies’ attention when there are still two and a half years of hard work to do first. However, I don’t think we should be panicking too early over States members imitating lemmings in 2012. Firstly, because it would be no real disaster if some of the current crop did decide to quit, and secondly, because the odds are against mass retirements.

History tells us that the number of voluntary retirees at the most recent general election was at the top end of the usual range. Ten is more typical, with a few more being made ‘compulsorily redundant’ by the electorate. As with all statistical averages, we should expect a significant variation on either side from election to election, but the mean will remain pretty constant unless something more fundamental is changing.  Maybe it is and we’re seeing the start of a long-term trend towards members deciding that two or three terms in the States is more than enough. If so, that could be very healthy but I really doubt it, particularly now the financial reward is so much higher than it was a decade or two back.

Rather, I think that what we are seeing is the usual exaggerated gossip about the number of members likely to step down next time around. This is nothing new. Every time a deputy even intimates that he/she has had enough, it’s taken as gospel by their (hopeful?) colleagues that this is their last term. Then there are those deputies like Dave Barrett or the late Val Renouf who announce, quite sincerely, that this is definitely their last stint but who can’t resist changing their mind when the election comes.

In short, it’s simply far too early for either us or their colleagues to be counting on our fingers the number of deputies in their last term. When the election comes, we’ll be genuinely surprised at some who decide to go and at some who don’t.

Even the Press’s own politics column has had a go at predicting the departees. Dave Jones and Bernard Flouquet have been mentioned. Maybe, but then these ‘political animals’ could just be the latter day Val Renoufs, unable to let go when it comes to it. Carla McNulty Bauer has also been the subject of speculation and certainly her recent insensitive comments about pensions do point to a politician with nothing to lose.

In theory, Mary Lowe should definitely be in her last term, because in the past she has made it very clear that she’s against anybody over 65 being a States member. She even lobbied strongly for a formal age limit and by 2016 she would be well over it herself. However, it would be no surprise if she’s changed her mind.

In reality it is far too early for any meaningful speculation. In two years’ time, many deputies will feel differently to today. Age, health, personal issues, other ambitions, or just plain old political frustration will all come into play. In the meantime, the summer recess is now well behind us and it’s time for deputies to stop the idle gossip and focus on the immediate work in hand.