SUMMING up the views of States economist Dr Andy Sloan on the economic future of Guernsey in a few words would go something like this: conditions are probably going to feel pretty tough for a bit but things will pick up in time.

As is the way with the profession, his views were peppered with ‘health warnings’ and caveats, not least of which was, keep a sense of perspective.

While things might feel rough, they are not, certainly compared to elsewhere, and Guernsey by any standards has a robust economy and is doing pretty well.

It was a good delivery to a Chamber of Commerce audience yesterday and one which had an underlying message: a bit of recession’s not actually a bad thing.

Because economists measure things, some are prone to using everyday benchmarks. The Sunday Times’ David Smith relies on a skip index – the number at any one time in his street – to gauge the health of the economy.

Dr Sloan uses taxis. And the lack here is a clear sign of supply side constraint which, making people reluctant to dine out and spend money, creates economic inefficiency.

And the past pressures of success – not having the resources to do more – is what has probably been responsible for the tail-off in growth locally, certainly before the credit crunch bit.

‘Cost of success’ isn’t a phrase much used of late but the evidence is apparently still there. A breathing space, as Dr Sloan put it, is actually beneficial for future productivity and growth.

Those businesses who have been directly affected, the staff who have lost jobs, and the remaining employees looking at various forms of pay freeze will certainly say that what’s happening feels far worse than economic theory.

The indicators, however, suggest that Guernsey has weathered things remarkably well.

In the long run, despite the problems elsewhere, the economy is structurally in rude health and there is much to be optimistic about.

With that assessment and Heather Watson’s stellar performance as well, there are, after all, some very good reasons to be cheerful.