‘ONLY a fool would predict that the States will adopt every possible cost-saving measure identified by Tribal. Some are probably overly ambitious; others may prove politically unacceptable to our community.’

The words of one of the most influential members of the States Assembly.

And Deputy Matt Fallaize is not alone.

Culture and Leisure minister Mike O’Hara says Beau Sejour cannot cut its subsidy without hiking prices – and that’s something the board does not want.

He echoes Deputy Fallaize: ‘Do you do it all? If you do do it all, you have to be very careful how you affect the community.’

And so it begins. The headline figure of £70m. is set to go in one direction only as States members chip away at its 107 action points.

Certainly the £4.56m. savings over five years identified from closing schools such as St Andrew’s is a thorny issue few – except, ironically, Deputy Fallaize – seem willing to grasp again.

But if only the easy/medium issues are pursued, how much of the £70m. can the island really expect to save?

One would hope that the £51m. identified by Tribal as directly attributable to the silo working habits of the 10 departments is safe.

But can we be sure? Many civil servants and politicians will struggle to cast aside the old ways.

Without the political resolve demanded by Tribal and the Treasury minister to make tough decisions, this process will fail. Cherry-picking the easy wins will greatly reduce savings.

The stakes are high. The ‘very real and immovable financial imperative’ identified by Tribal is not going away.

An operating deficit of £29m. for 2010 is a revolver pointing at the island’s head.

Extra taxes will be proposed to fill the existing States deficit. Every one of the 107 action points fudged or ignored increases the likelihood of the States dipping deeper into islanders’ pockets.

And each compromise makes it more likely that plans for a disability officer, a domestic abuse strategy or helping the jobless back into work are again pushed aside.