THERE will be no significant interest rate movements in the UK until well into 2010, according to Sarasin and Partners chief investment officer Guy Monson.

He is predicting that the economic recovery under way at the moment will be completely different to any seen before, and that the UK, along with the US, Japan and most parts of the EU, would not be leading it.

‘Overall world growth will probably be between 1.5 and 2% lower than it was pre-crisis in the next three years,’ said Mr Monson.

‘But that is still strong enough to support corporate profits and dividends growth, both of which will underpin world markets.

‘But the order of the recovery will be unusual. Most of the older investors in the island will be used to the first interest rate rises as we move into a recovery coming out of the Bundesbank or the Federal Reserve, but this time around it is the commodity-producing countries such as Australia and Norway that will lead, followed by much of the emerging world, probably led by India and Brazil.

‘The EU, Japan, the US and the UK, and in particular the Anglo-Saxon economies, will be among the last to make any significant move in interest rates until well into the summer of 2010.’

Mr Monson (Pictured), who writes regularly in the international financial press and appears frequently on financial channels such as CNBC and Bloomberg, was in Guernsey to speak to local investors at a Sarasin Fund Management seminar.