Visiting economist cautiously optimistic for recovery
Tuesday 1st December 2009, 2:32PM GMT.
WE ARE now looking at a V-shaped recovery, in the short-term at least, according to Barclays Wealth senior economist Sandra Horsfield (pictured).
She was in the island to speak to a number of the island’s finance community about how she sees the current state of the world economy.
But while she said there was cause for optimism, there was also a warning that no-one should be getting ahead of themselves.
‘Although we would say that recovery is here to stay, don’t expect that we can turn back the clock and think this is the end of the financial crisis, or it was a bad dream, because there are still some hangovers we have to deal with.’
However, her reason for short-term optimism centred on a number of factors including continued fiscal policy support and low interest rates.
But also that companies had made a lot of headway in slashing output relative to the anticipated downturn in demand, which would help when growth returned, and that the supply chain to world trade was starting to come back strongly, particularly in Asia.
And although growth in 2010 was less certain, supportive factors were that many countries had already made labour market adjustments.
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I don’t think people in the Channel Islands,apart from a few lawyers, are aware of how much of the opaque flawed securitisations Barclays Capital was responsible for churning out, they are actually credited with creating the ‘SIV-Lite’. Structures which were central to the freezing of the interbank markets and our flirting with a general banking collapse. Something which I doubt Ms Horsfield was willing to discuss.
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Indeed, nor the so-called experts that continually slag me off on here for bringing it up.
“HELLO? I’M IN THE LAWYERS’ SCREWING UP THE WORLD! PUT THE DINNER ON!”
sorry Dom, couldn’t resist.
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And BarCap were recommending to clients to pile into Dubai related corporate and quasi governmental debt scarcely two weeks before the interest payment morotorium that has trashed that state’s reputation for a long time. Geniuses who clearly deserve the 200% payrises that Barclays have decided to pay their investment bankers from next year!
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We are a lot smarter that you Diamond!!We didn’t buy your trash and make even more millions in bonus payments for you.
We knew your sales people were trying to dump the dross on us poor investors.
More seriously I wonder how many mugs bought the junk?
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you betcha!
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All these words of wisdom from the industry that created this awful situation, brought the world to it’s knees and continues to cock a snoot at it’s customers (some of whom are homeless this Christmas thanks to their greed) by paying out huge bonuses, really makes me sick.
Just looking at this smug, finance propaganda peddling face makes me want to slap her.
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The worst is yet to come!
Sandra Horsfield said there was “cause for optimism”.
Has she been taking laxitives?
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Why is it we have to all feel optimistic to this sort of speculation when it was all the false speculation in bankimg and finance that got us into the mess we are in.
When will anybody from Banking and Finance say that you cannot build a sustained economy on speculative property and avoidance of tax etc etc
Greed has overtaken all rational thinking and decision.
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