Island’s full employment not a given

Friday 18th December 2009, 2:37PM GMT.

ONE of the less eye-catching stories this week was the release of the quarterly labour market bulletin, which showed that the workforce reduced by nearly 650 people in the 12 months to September.

While that reflects the island’s higher levels of unemployment and around 200 people who have left the island for various reasons, it also highlights something else.

The number of people looking for work here, at 440, is 1.4% of the total employed workforce. By contrast, however, the same figure in Jersey is approaching 3% while in the UK it is nearly 8%.

In other words, the island’s economy appears to be holding up significantly better than those of our neighbouring jurisdictions.

A glance at the bulletin also indicates the number of islanders – 32,332 – who were either employed or self-employed, a little more than half of all those living here. That suggests about 50% of the population is, at least to a degree, helping to support the other half which is not economically active, so any fall in employment has an immediate impact on tax take while social costs remain unchanged.

The statistics also show that the largest single age group in employment is in the 40-49 bracket so when that ‘bulge’ reaches retirement there will be fewer around to support them – another sign of the demographic difficulties ahead.

In addition, the bulletin makes it clear how dependent the island is on just four sectors for the bulk of its jobs: working for the States (16.8%), finance (21.6%), wholesale, retail and repairs (13.8%) and construction, at just under 10%.

Building work is clearly subject to economic and recessionary pressures, growth in the public sector is the last thing taxpayers need at the moment, and wholesale and retail jobs are also dependent on how much money consumers have. Which leaves finance and suggests that it has helped to pull Guernsey through these difficult times, whatever people might think of it.

The fact is that islanders have been fortunate enough, bar for a couple of blips along the way, to have had full employment and plenty of jobs for a generation and more.

The labour bulletin shows, however, that that is not something that can be taken for granted.

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