WHAT would a Conservative UK Government mean for Guernsey?

With Prime Minister Gordon Brown being disowned by members of his own party while facing opposition calls for an immediate general election, it is unlikely he will retain his position and Labour looks on its last legs.

So how would our fair isle fare in an era of David Cameron and co. – arguably the least-worst and only likely alternative?

Maybe all of Chief Minister Lyndon Trott’s wooing of the Tories would prove worth it – he met William Hague this year after all…

Housing Minister Dave Jones is convinced such a changing of the guard would benefit the Bailiwick and said he’d breathe a sigh of relief to see the back of Brown’s Britain.

And Euro-wary Deputy Jan Kuttelwascher believes the Tories would stand their ground against French and German attempts to marginalise offshore finance centres, where Labour would not.

Chamber of Commerce shares this perspective.

But former UK Liberal Democrat candidate Mike Hadley warned islanders not to get too excited too soon, as any party would face the same financial struggles and have the same incentives.

Deputy Jones said anything would be better than the recent relationship with Labour.

‘The main problems we have had with what I call creeping interference from the UK into our affairs have come in the last decade with the Labour Government in power,’ he said.

‘They seem obsessed with controlling the lives of almost everyone, whether they happen to reside in the UK or not.’

Labour’s tendency to marginalise the Crown Dependencies by passing around responsibility for them without much interest in them had constantly irritated him, he said.

‘What has angered me is the disrespect the Labour Government has shown us,’ he said, referring specifically to the lack of senior Labour figures to have visited Guernsey in the last decade.

‘The Channel Islands are passed around like some parcel through Westminster, moved from office to office; Lord Chancellors, Constitutional Affairs, Ministry of Justice – it is annoying to say the least.’

‘You never get to form any decent long-term relationship with people before being passed on like a tin of beans.’

Historically, he said, Guernsey had enjoyed long and positive periods alongside the Conservatives.

‘I believe that if a Conservative Government comes to power, the islands will enjoy a much better relationship with them than this present Labour show.

‘This Labour Government has always been preoccupied with squeezing as much tax out of the population as they can.

‘The Conservatives have been more sympathetic to people who wish to retain more of their earnings with a choice of what to do with it.’

But he doubted that the ever-brightening spotlight of scrutiny that has been shone on the Crown Dependencies and their business practices would be dimmed or pointed elsewhere.

‘Whichever government is in power in the UK, whichever colour, the UK is no longer governing itself, it has become a region now of a country called Europe.’

‘I expect the scrutiny from the EU and internationally will remain the same.’

Deputy Jones said that whoever gets in it is unlikely that dealing with offshore finance issues would be a priority.

But Deputy Hadley flatly disagreed with this point.

He said the UK’s debt, following the multi-billion-pound banks bail-out, meant any leader from any party would be frothing at the mouth for funds.

‘With a major debt problem, the UK must reduce public spending or increase taxation without damaging the recovery – therefore tax evasion or tax avoidance is bound to be important,’ he said.

He spoke to a Liberal Democrat candidate friend, Richard Burt of West Worcestershire, to investigate the issue.

‘Certainly while Richard Burt would not wish to see any damage to the island’s finance industry, a priority must be to reduce the ability of the super-rich to avoid taxation,’ he said

‘The loyalty of any MP will be to the UK electorate, and not to the islanders of Guernsey.’

He said Liberal Democrat main economic spokesman Vince Cable had shown the same focus – doing more to stop the super-rich evading taxation in the UK by using offshore havens.

‘By this they do mean those jurisdictions that are not transparent in their dealings and do not have tax information exchange agreements,’ said Deputy Hadley, who added that Guernsey was not necessarily one of them.

‘I suspect that this will be the view of all three major political parties.’

Deputy Jan Kuttelwascher said Labour’s loyalty to Europe was very relevant to the question.

‘I think a Labour Government, or, God forbid, a Liberal Democrat Government, would be quite hostile to the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man.’

Labour and the Liberal Democrats were far more in bed with Europe than the Conservatives, he said.

‘The Europeans, I don’t doubt, would like to see all offshore centres shut down as finance centres – they would bring regulations that would make it almost impossible for us to do business within the EU at all and get rid of our advantage.

‘The Tories will stand taller against Europe and will be more protective of the UK and the British Isles in the face of EU attempts to make our finance industry less important.’

Chamber of Commerce director Barry Cash, who describes himself as being ‘further to the right than Attila the Hun’, backed this view.

‘The Conservatives are much more relaxed and hands-off about control and they are much more inclined to allow market forces to develop rather than regulate everything from the centre.

‘They don’t control the markets as much, which would be good for Guernsey.

‘This is a much more flexible approach and they would also have a more objective view of Brussels, rather than the subjective view Labour have – they would not be so subservient.’

In the opinion of this writer we are lucky to be small enough not to have to deal with party politics.

Considering how much time the States wastes anyway, the introduction of parties could bring us to a standstill, with more self-important posturing than ever.

The current UK parties are all as unimaginative and bad as each other, and Guernsey can learn little about good governance from them.

Unfortunately they will be there whether we like it or not, bickering away.

The disease politicians get is that they start to take the politician more seriously than the politics.