LOOKING purely at the numbers, it seems an odds-on bet that the Spruce requete to bring Suez back from the dead will succeed when debated later this month.

Up to four of the five members of the Environment Department are now expected to ride to the rescue of the £93.5m. project by speaking and voting in favour of the Longue Hougue incinerator.

They will return to the fray knowing ‘there would be consequences flowing from doing so in relation to their participation in the planning process’ to quote the prayer of the  requete.

With Deputy Sam Maindonald opting out again, those four should bring the total in favour of Suez to an unbeatable 24.

As Deputy Mary Lowe says, that is democracy. It is within the rules and, in theory, that should be that.

Except, of course, it won’t be anything like so simple.

If deputies thought tensions were high last month it can be anticipated that the pressure before and during this meeting will be more intense than all but a few have experienced as politicians.

Many protesters believe they swung the vote with people power last time and a large, vociferous, crowd outside the States Chamber will remind deputies that their seat in the House is at stake.

And with every vote counting, islanders both for and against the incinerator will know which deputies to lobby in a bid to get them to change their minds.

Some may already be uncomfortable with reversing the vote and cannot be counted on to back Suez again. Some may have regretted backing the Lowe amendment.

Regardless, the depth of feeling this issue has stirred will only be intensified by the elation that followed the vote of 26 February and the short-lived belief that a ‘greener’ future had been embraced.

But as was clear before the February debate – and is even clearer now – even a vote in favour of Suez will be far from the end of the matter.

Islanders must be asking when they will finally know with certainty where the future of waste actually lies.