Good news – but not on diversity
Wednesday 24th March 2010, 2:30PM GMT.
PUBLICATION yesterday of the island’s first annual economic overview revealed that Guernsey’s gross domestic product grew by an estimated 7.6% in 2008, which was more than expected, and the increase in the two previous years was also better than anticipated.
In short, Guernsey plc was powering along until everything fell off a cliff in 2009 when the financial crisis exploded around the world.
Even then, the Policy Council’s report indicates, the momentum that had built up, combined with zero-10 tax changes and the level of diversification within finance, has helped drag the island through the worst of the crisis.
Islanders and organisations did not escape unscathed but it could clearly have been a lot worse and this community has fared significantly better than many others, including its near neighbours.
What the report also does is to reinforce the reliance this island has on the financial services sector – it is the biggest single employer and it also represents 40% of all that which goes into making up the GDP figure.
Take that away, and this community would be in dire straits indeed.
What the accounts also indicate is the size and importance of the States as an employer and contributor to economic output. Just over 7,000 work in finance, 22% of the market, while the public sector accounts for 17%, or 5,527.
The economic value of those in finance or business services, however, is significantly greater than those in other areas indicating that the more islanders can be accommodated in those two sectors, the better for Guernsey as a whole.
Given that the economy was buoyant in the three years to 2008, the job growth in the States has been comparatively modest, averaging 2% a year, so it will be interesting to see what the figures will be for 2009, when they are released in the summer.
What Guernsey’s first set of ‘national’ accounts does indicate, however, is the need to ensure that a business-friendly climate is maintained and one that retains the financial services sector.
That may be comparatively well diversified – the rest of the economy is not.
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