GLOBAL economic growth for 2010 will be around 5%, according to Collins Stewart Wealth Management chief investment officer Nigel Cuming, pictured.

He made the forecast while speaking at the Channel Island wealth managers inaugural investment conference.

And while a large part of that figure would be as a result of what he believes will be 8% growth in China and the ability of other Bric nations to achieve 10%, the recovery will be a durable one for the Western world with a pick-up in manufacturing, consumption and an improvement in the US unemployment figures being key indicators.

‘If we are reasonably optimistic about what is going on in the West, then we are for more confident about what is going on in the East, and when we say the East, we principally mean China.’

Mr Cuming said Chinese demand was raging at this point in time, and this was not just for commodities, because Chinese exports had also surged ahead, which in itself suggested a recovery for global trade.

He added that the measures the Chinese government had implemented during the downturn, such as its own stimulus actions, had helped the process of growth and recovery.

On the equity markets side of things, Mr Cuming said they were still around 13 to 20% off their highs, and despite a rally of 80% from their March 2009 lows there was still possibly a little more to give over the next month or so before a short period of market consolidation.

After this period of consolidation, Mr Cuming anticipated to experience again the bull market that investment managers had become used to over the past 12 months.

There were however some dangers that could hamper the recovery, according to Mr Cuming, including sovereign risk and a lack of political will that could result in governments being unable to get their population to accept reduced public spending, which in itself could contribute to worrying inflationary activity.

Mr Cuming was speaking at the seminar alongside a number of his Collins Stewart colleagues including fixed interest manager Paul Philp, fund manager Richard Hodgetts and chairman of the fund selection committee Mark Piper.

Mr Piper told the audience of the importance of the fund selection process and looked at the way that blending different funds and styles could add value to a portfolio and outperform other investment products in the good times and the tough periods.

‘Style blending can significantly improve the fund returns over the long term,’ said Mr Piper.