NO COLUMNIST likes saying ‘I told you so’, but at the end of last year I predicted that 2010 would be the year of votes of no confidence within the States of Guernsey. Admittedly I suggested that they would largely flow from departments being stuck between a rock (the need to live within budgets) and a hard place (burgeoning demands on vital services).

My prediction was that departmental committees would either be put on trial by their colleagues for overspending or else for ‘cutting in the wrong places’. However, the votes of no confidence we’ve seen so far seem to relate to a baser political instinct – the taste for blood.

I still wouldn’t rule out confidence motions inspired by flailing departmental attempts to live within their budgets.

In such circumstances departments simply ‘can’t do right for doing wrong’. Overspend and they are bad corporate players, letting others take all the strain of tackling the deficit. Make tough choices, and really squeeze expenditure, and they’ll be slated for cutting services.

Initially those brickbats will come from the public and the media, but their colleagues will soon join in – if only to prove their own innocence to the incensed critics.

Of course it would be far better if our deputies responded more positively to the cash crises, showing the collective vision and strategic thinking needed to bring the island’s books back into balance with the least possible impact on frontline services. However, that would be devilishly difficult and would require inspired leadership, so we are far more likely to see collective finger-pointing in the form of continued votes of no confidence.

So far the spate of ‘sacking propositions’ has included some weird and wacky ones. Last month saw an attempt to bring down PSD over the waste strategy. The suspicion was that some members secretly still worshipped the great fire-god ‘Suez’, but it was decided to give them more time to prove they were true converts to the new state religion of ‘?’.

That followed an earlier attempt to sack the Public Accounts Committee for staying silent during a States debate. Elsewhere, the HSSD minister actually invited the chief minister to bring a vote of no confidence in his committee following his strong criticism of the department’s overspending.

Then we had the bizarre situation of Deputy Jones asking for his requete on regulation to be voted on without debate, but then threatening Commerce and Employment with a confidence motion if it failed to reflect States members’ feelings on the subject. Just how they were expected to understand those sentiments without a debate is unclear. Could C&E become the first States committee to be sacked for lack of telepathy?

While all these actual and threatened votes of no confidence are great knockabout, giving endless material to those engaged in commenting on the States’ antics, they are a distraction from the real tasks at hand. I’m certainly not saying that none of the current departments are dysfunctional or that they couldn’t do with stronger, more inspired membership. All I am asking is whether a spate of votes of no confidence will actually lead to that. Imagine three or four departments getting the sack but then having to be repopulated by deputies from within the current House. What would be the real benefit? After wrangling for days – engendering deep bitterness which will make future team-working very difficult – all they will have done is shuffled the same pack. It will have been time-consuming, self-indulgent, navel-gazing – just rearranging the deckchairs on the deck of the SS States of Deliberation. If that metaphor implies that the current House has something of the Titanic about it – well, maybe that’s apt.

Stretching the metaphor further, we are beset by icebergs.

Guernsey desperately needs to balance its books. It needs a new competitive yet internationally acceptable tax structure. It needs to tackle a range of endemic social issues such as domestic abuse. The list goes on.

I hope these Herculean tasks will be our deputies’ main focus and fill their minds every waking hour – but I doubt it. The problem is that putting your shoulder to the wheel and looking for meaningful solutions is much harder work and – for some twisted souls – much less fun than attacking colleagues.

Votes of no confidence are certainly sometimes needed for good government but if they happen too frequently you can be sure they have become a political blood sport.