ISLANDERS should be in no doubt about the seriousness of the threat facing Guernsey Post and the quality of service that it is able to provide.

If Jersey does decide this autumn to introduce full competition into its postal market, the consequences here will be very grave.

Free of any obligation to provide equivalent residential services such as mail collection and delivery or operating sub-post offices, rival operators will be able to undercut the costs of the established postal authorities and this will attract custom from within Jersey and also Guernsey.

The beneficiaries will be the islands’ bulk mailers and the incentives for them are huge. Even a fraction of a penny per item has the potential to rake up substantial savings because of the volume of items moved – around 70m. in total are handled in Guernsey and 94m. in Jersey.

While there might be a dispute locally about how much competition there should be and how quickly it ought be introduced, Guernsey and the regulator at least had some control over the consequences. Jersey jumping first, however, would sweep that away and Guernsey Post could be faced with a catastrophic fall in revenues since the fulfilment sector here contributes massively to its volumes and revenue – in Jersey it is more than half of JP’s business.

Guernsey Post Ltd is trying to transform its business model and strip out cost but that cannot be done overnight and it would be unfortunate if it was trying to meet an unrealistic deadline effectively set by its neighbour.

The crisis closure of sub-post offices and cutting of household deliveries isn’t in anyone’s best interests and this appears to be a clear case of when the islands need to be working in concert, especially since they now have a joint regulator.

However, competition is a reality and other jurisdictions are actively seeking to poach the Channel Islands’ bulk mailers, who are worth £300m. in revenue and employ 750 people in Guernsey alone.

Holding on to them is key and actually begs the question whether the islands need two postal authorities or a merged, cheaper, CI Post.