WITH less than a year to go until the election, some talk has already turned to what we can expect the next States to look like.

The rumour mill began some time ago about who might be coming in from the outside, with a few well-known names from business and the parishes, as well as advocates making soundings.

But what of the class of 2008 to 2012?

Privately, members are talking about their futures.

Publicly, Treasury minister Charles Parkinson has been the most prominent member to say he would stand down at the end of this term, making a surprisingly early announcement.

He will be joined by deputies Graham Guille and Tom Le Pelley, who have 21 years’ worth of experience between them, with at least 18 members yet to make up their minds.

Just over a quarter have declared an intention to stand and, if previous elections are anything to go by, you can expect a reasonable changing of the old guard; in 2004, there were 14 new members and 2008’s new faces totalled 19.

There will always be a concern about the loss of experience, just how to ensure continuity at a time when crucial cost-cutting measures are under way, and major policy areas like population are just beginning to be understood and formed.

Deputy Guille, who would have served nine years in the States by 2012 and will be 72 – has said he does not wish to continue beyond his ‘sell-by’ date.

He remains highly critical of this newspaper, its columnists and letter writers – suggesting that, judging by their contributions, there will be no shortage of candidates next time around.

‘When I leave office I shall nevertheless take comfort from the fact that this Assembly will have succeeded in maintaining public services, built new schools, hospitals, hundreds of new homes and many other important infrastructure projects and has still been able to pay cost-of-living increases on pensions and other social benefits,’ he said.

‘This, in the face of one of the deepest global recessions in a generation, continual interference in our domestic tax affairs from external interests and unremitting criticism from certain sections of the media.’

He was confident that an impartial view of this States would see it has acquitted itself well.

‘We have not had to raise general taxation, we will not have borrowed or left future Assemblies with large bills for overspends or unpaid projects – unlike the situation we inherited.

‘True, the “rainy day” cash reserves are reduced (that was what they were for) but it was that or go cap in hand to the money markets for a loan.

‘Public spending is under better control, staff numbers have been reduced (mainly by natural wastage) and the delivery of public projects is under proper management for the first time ever. The government is leaner than ever before and there is more to come.’

He believes the States has not communicated this good-news story to the public.

‘Given that the most fundamental element of any finance-based economy is confidence in the stability and effectiveness of the political process, it is unfortunate that there have been those in this island who have sought to undermine that confidence by constant negativity, apparently oblivious to the damage that was being done to the trust of those who invest in our community.’

Deputy Le Pelley, a member of the Public Services Department and chairman of Percc, will have served 12 years at the end of this term and will be 70 when the election comes around.

‘I had hoped by that time we would have agreed a sensible solid and liquid waste strategy. The agreement may come in that timeframe, but the practicalities are less likely to have been resolved,’ he said.

He expects three major issues he is involved with to have final approval before the next election – the airport, harbour cranes and the long-awaited Percc report which will decide how things like the parish churches and rectories are paid for.

‘I shall miss the friendly companionship of all the fellow deputies and civil servants that I have had the privilege to work closely with over those years, but will enjoy the spare time to “paddle my own canoe”.’

So, two deputies feel they have served their time – what of some of those who want another four years?

Deputy Sean McManus said he has now been in the States long enough to understand how things work so that he can contribute more effectively. Much remains to be done, he added.

Deputy Barry Paint said there were projects he was involved with that he would like to see through to their conclusions.

Two of the main reasons behind Deputy Mike O’Hara’s intention to re-stand are a desire to see the community prosper and supply more support to the island’s youth.

‘Our present situation of restraint needs to continue to enable us to develop into a more efficient government.

‘I want to stand to see this through, but on the understanding that we will be able to offer services in the future which will bring satisfaction to islanders,’ he said.

Deputy Mike Hadley intends to continue to ask difficult questions of ministers, something he believes consensus government means people tend to avoid.

Too many deputies, he said, vote to court popularity, which has led to the U-turns seen in the last term.

Deputy Dave Jones sparked some interest late last week when he declared on the thisisguernsey website forum that the next States would have to look for a new Housing minister – there are some who believe he is keen on another major department should he get re-elected.

But he maintains that he has not made up his mind.

And like his fellow Vale representative Deputy Guille, the role of the press is foremost in his mind.

‘The written media has destroyed the reputational value of the deputies’ role and we can only stand for so long the kind of relentless criticism that has been levelled at us over several years.

‘My real fear is this constant toxic drip feed will most certainly have frightened many good candidates away,’ he said.

Well, it will not be too long before the calibre of candidates for 2012 is known.

But there remain some major hurdles to pass over before then.

Chief Minister Lyndon Trott said: ‘There will be many challenges to meet before my attention turns to the next election.

‘In fact, the States of Deliberation will be having its busiest period for many years during the second half of this year and with all the preparatory work under way at present, in the development of policy recommendations, there are much more important matters for me to concentrate on.’