CHAMBER of Commerce president Julian Winser attracted a full house earlier this week when he spoke at the business lobby group’s monthly lunch meeting, an indication – in the August holiday period – of what weight people attach to his opinions.

That is enhanced by his leading Schroders locally and the access that gives him to quality data and the perspective gained by being part of a global asset management company looking after more than £200bn-worth of clients’ money in 25 different countries.

In the event, his talk was full of insight – particularly of the competition posed by highly educated people in China (now the biggest English-speaking country in the world) and India – and how the developed economies really have little growth prospect.

In Guernsey’s case, its economy has expanded more like an emerging territory but that has now come to an end and has big implications for future government spending, which has been well in excess of rates of inflation.

That was a point seized on by Tribal Consulting in 2009 when it said that ‘Operating within this funding environment has meant departments have, in many instances, been able to provide “gold plated” services or indeed services where there is no clear rationale at all for government intervention. There has also been no imperative to deliver services efficiently.’

If Mr Winser is correct, as many believe, that Guernsey’s economy has peaked then government funding will remain under pressure and any above-RPI expenditure will have to come from additional taxation.

For his predominantly business audience, the concern is that despite all the evidence that government piled on the fat during the good times, there is little to indicate any desire to slim to adjust to leaner times.

Expenditure is rising, payroll and pension costs are not under control and although headcount was down by 43, that is barely 1% of the total.

So just at a time when government believes it has done enough to weather the storm, it is about to move into a period of austerity in substantially the same shape as before and with unchanged expectations for spending.

For Mr Winser’s audience, which is rather wider than just those at the lunch, that is a bleak prospect indeed.