SPEAKING at an event looking at the possible threats to and opportunities for the island’s financial services industry, the Treasury and Resources minister suggested the almost unthinkable: that Guernsey might not have it as the dominant sector in 10 years’ time.

That was not to herald the imminent collapse of finance but more to suggest that other economic areas might come to the fore over the next decade, particularly given some of the initiatives that were in place.

While Guernsey’s financial services are far more diverse than is generally acknowledged, having a greater variety of wealth-creating opportunities would be welcome.

That said, it is not clear that the next big thing might be. Because finance has been here so long, people tend to forget what Guernsey was like without it and fail to remember the annual brain drain of its top youngsters as they were forced to find employment in the UK and elsewhere.

The gradual migration of business towards managing the wealth of other people has over the years provided a source of well-paid, fulfilling and comfortably accommodated jobs and one that has been able to absorb many of the young adults leaving the island’s schools.

In the last couple of years, more leavers have found work in the retail sector than in finance, and that might be regarded as a worrying trend.

Retail provides a worthwhile career for many but it is under pressure, as the 40 empty units in Town indicate, and the opportunities for progression, training and salary are inevitably more restricted than in finance.

A number of growth possibilities were suggested at the event, the Guernsey Review, including renewable energy, cloud computing and the new image rights registry.

What they do not immediately seem to have, however, is the requirement to employ large numbers of people. While that might not matter at this stage, it could be crucial in the future.

So while there is no immediate threat to the island’s dominant industry, one thing does seem clear. Guernsey’s reliance on financial services is not going to end any time soon.